Will Iran's Islamist dictators launch a war against Israel to save their skins?

Today, I read a summary of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) Strategic Assessment for this year. Among other things, the assessment talks about the possibility of another war breaking out on Israel's northern front, which would involve Hezbollah and possibly Syria and Iran. The worst case scenario involves a conflict involving all of the aforementioned three. I'm not 100% sure, but I don't think that this assessment was done in time to take into consideration the popular uprising now taking place in Iran. I mention the assessment and the Iran protests in the same context because I think those protests could increase the chances of the worst case scenario taking place.

History teaches us that ruling regimes often use foreign wars in order to deflect their people's attention away from domestic problems. Remember the period between George W. Bush's inauguration as U.S. President and the September 11th attacks? Bush had won what was arguably the most controversial election in American history, ultimately decided by the U.S. Supreme Court voting along party lines and handing him the presidency. As Michael Moore noted in his film Fahrenheit 911, Bush struggled to get any of his agenda carried out and looked like a lame duck president. I was an undergraduate at the University of Toronto at the time, and I still remember one of my professors predicting that Bush would be a lame duck president because of the way he got elected. But then 9/11 happened. After that, Americans rallied around the flag and their president in the war on terror. And the rest is history.

Right now, Iran's Islamist regime is facing a full-scale revolt by the Iranian people. It's not surprising that they're accusing their enemies of sowing the seeds of dissent in the Islamic Republic. I think there is a real possibility that Iran's Islamist rulers will try and instigate a conflict with Israel in order to refocus their people's attention. Just think about it for a moment. If Iran attacked Israel, the Jewish state would certainly retaliate and the Islamists could use the destruction that such retaliation would bring in order to rally Iran's people behind the flag and end the uprising, just as U.S. President George W. Bush used the 9/11 attacks to deflect attention from his unpopularity. It's a frightening thought, but unfortunately it's quite possible for such a scenario to play out.